Articles
Salah And The xG - A Cause For Concern?
Just because Mo Salah is at the top of the Anytime Goalscorer favourite for a fixture, doesn’t mean that he’s going to hit the back of the net. While goalscorer markets are fascinating to look at on good betting apps, realism has to be applied.
Since joining Liverpool in the 2017/18 season, Mo Salah has lit up the Premier League stage with his scoring antics - but how often has he delivered on his xG?
It’s based on the position and quality of chances that a team or player is expected to get, and it takes into consideration the quality of the opposing defence. So a lot is going on here and it is just ‘expected’ goals. The goals cannot be guaranteed of course, but then nothing about football betting can.
Salah has not at any point since returned to that same kind of level. He set the bar so high for himself that he couldn’t live up to his stellar standards.
Another way to look at this is that three of Mo Salah’s last four seasons, including the last two, have seen him fall short of his expected output. Last season was Salah’s worst in this respect.
During the 2022/23 campaign, Salah’s xG was 23.34 goals. He delivered more than four below what he was projected to get.
The season before he was averaging 4.54 shots per game. So that points to a picture that the chances weren’t coming and when they did, overall, Salah wasn’t as clinical as he’d been in the past.
Salah scored twice from an average of 3.04 shots per 90 minutes. Luis Diaz got his two goals for the season from less time on the pitch than Salah but from more average shots per game.
Darwin Núñez's two goals in those first five games of the 2023/24 EPL campaign came from a mammoth 7.73 shots per 90 minutes, clearly indicating the wastefulness from the forward. Last season Núñez was projected to hit 14 goals in the Premier League season - he tallied only nine.
Since joining Liverpool in the 2017/18 season, Mo Salah has lit up the Premier League stage with his scoring antics - but how often has he delivered on his xG?
Betting with the xG
One of the newest trends in football statistics to help with betting predictions is the xG. This relatively newer area of statistical focus is the expected goals that either a team or an individual could deliver in a match.It’s based on the position and quality of chances that a team or player is expected to get, and it takes into consideration the quality of the opposing defence. So a lot is going on here and it is just ‘expected’ goals. The goals cannot be guaranteed of course, but then nothing about football betting can.
Salah’s Stunning Opener
Mo Salah arrived from Serie A club Roma and was an immediate sensation. His xG for the season was high at 25.14 - 0.77 xG per 90 minutes. Staggeringly, Salah smashed that out of the water in a stunning campaign, during which he scored 32 goals, beating his season’s projection by almost seven.Salah has not at any point since returned to that same kind of level. He set the bar so high for himself that he couldn’t live up to his stellar standards.
Six Season Tally
Taking the six completed Premier League seasons that Salah has had at Anfield, he has beaten his xG in three of them. Notably, each of the three occasions where the forward did end the season above his projected XG, were in his first four campaigns.Another way to look at this is that three of Mo Salah’s last four seasons, including the last two, have seen him fall short of his expected output. Last season was Salah’s worst in this respect.
During the 2022/23 campaign, Salah’s xG was 23.34 goals. He delivered more than four below what he was projected to get.
Chances drying up?
Returning to that 2022/23 Premier League campaign, Salah produced his worst figures for average shots per game since joining Liverpool at just 3.40. How much of a decline was that?The season before he was averaging 4.54 shots per game. So that points to a picture that the chances weren’t coming and when they did, overall, Salah wasn’t as clinical as he’d been in the past.
The Good News
The positive is that Salah is still the Liverpool player most likely to put the ball in the back of the net. After five Premier League games of the new 2023/24 season, Salah was behind Luis Diaz and Darwin Núñez for average shots per 90 minutes.Salah scored twice from an average of 3.04 shots per 90 minutes. Luis Diaz got his two goals for the season from less time on the pitch than Salah but from more average shots per game.
Darwin Núñez's two goals in those first five games of the 2023/24 EPL campaign came from a mammoth 7.73 shots per 90 minutes, clearly indicating the wastefulness from the forward. Last season Núñez was projected to hit 14 goals in the Premier League season - he tallied only nine.
Sticking Around
Salah sticking around is crucial to Liverpool’s Top 4 ambitions of course. During the 2019/20 title-winning season, Salah didn’t reach his xG. But the difference then was that the Reds had quality surrounding him in Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mané. Mané finished that season just one goal behind Salah’s tally of 19. The current xG of Liverpool does not project Salah or Liverpool having anywhere near that kind of back-up.In Summary
The xGs are not the be-all-and-end-all, but it’s something to keep an eye on for your Liverpool betting. Just because the goalscoring heroics of Salah in the past has kept the Reds flying high, doesn’t mean those same heights are going to be kept up.
His numbers still put him among the elite strikers in the league. But the stats may just be an indicator that it’s worth tempering back on his week-to-week output in options like the goalscorer markets.
Written by Alan Spencer
