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Liverpool’s Spark And Correct Score Betting Focus
There’s perhaps nothing quite like a 7-0 hammering of old rivals Manchester United to inject some momentum into an end-of-season run-in. The stunning Anfield result posted by Liverpool in early March was something special for the Reds to celebrate.
After a season of struggles, it could be the catalyst that sees them push on to claim a top-four finish. Confidence should be through the roof after the result. There will likely be blips along the way still, but the victory over United will have given Liverpool something important.
That is a belief that they can produce the kind of top-level performances that they need to reach next season’s Champions League. While 7-0 victories are not going to commonly be backed in betting odds at bookies listed and rated at https://legalbet.uk/betting-sites/sets/football/ it does bring the correct score betting market into focus.
Understandably so. Only Liverpool’s even-more remarkable 9-0 win over Bournemouth back in August last year tops it.
For the record, Liverpool also recorded a 9-0 home win over Crystal Palace back in the old First Division. The record win in any match that Liverpool have produced was their 11-0 success in the 1974 European Cup Winners’ Cup against Stromsgodset.
Low-scoring games are generally those where the two teams are evenly matched. Games that just don't look in the stats that they are going to go above 2.5 goals. That’s the better type of game to focus on for the market.
Why? Because if you firmly think a match is going to go under 2.5 Goals then only six correct score options can crop up, a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw, or a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for one team. That narrows down the correct score market massively.
An even tighter expectancy at Under 1.5 Goals narrows it down further to four. So it’s not about looking for those uncommon score lines on a whim, as there’s no point. A 1-0 victory is a lot more common than a 3-2 result for example.
For the entirety of the 2021/22 season, the top three most frequent Premier League score lines were 1-1, 1-0 and 1-0 and 2-0.
That’s not a bad approach and waiting for in-play gives punters the chance to assess the flow of the game. Even waiting until half of the match has been played can pay off. The second half of matches generally produces more goals.
It also leans into situations. For this season, Liverpool’s potential of coming up with equalising goals in matches was fairly poor. Including that early March success over Manchester United, Liverpool had fallen behind 16 times in the season.
Their recovery to find an equalising goal happened in just nine of those occasions for a 56% rate. So had the shoe been on the other foot and Liverpool had been trailing 1-0 at half-time in that game against United, something entirely different may have played out.
Punters may have been hesitant to move much beyond the same correct score at the final whistle or maybe a 1-1 pick.
Also pushing Liverpool’s bid for Champions League football next season is the slipping and sliding of Tottenham and Newcastle. The bids of both of those in the race for a Top Four finish have become increasingly unstable.
Newcastle’s slumping form in 2023, including a 2-0 loss against the Reds, has opened the door for Liverpool. Tottenham’s season has slid into unpredictability, home wins over the likes of Man City and Chelsea were scratched out because of losses to Wolves and Leicester.
At the turn of the year, they weren’t in the top four race at all. They had taken one point from their first four league matches of 2023 with just one goal scored in that sequence. But it’s gotten better and better.
It is unlikely to get any better than their Anfield result over Manchester United.
After a season of struggles, it could be the catalyst that sees them push on to claim a top-four finish. Confidence should be through the roof after the result. There will likely be blips along the way still, but the victory over United will have given Liverpool something important.
That is a belief that they can produce the kind of top-level performances that they need to reach next season’s Champions League. While 7-0 victories are not going to commonly be backed in betting odds at bookies listed and rated at https://legalbet.uk/betting-sites/sets/football/ it does bring the correct score betting market into focus.
Risky Market One For The Sidelines
Liverpool’s biggest-ever win over Manchester United came in at around a pre-match 999/1 quote with bookies for a 7-0 correct score. It’s not something that would have been on the radar of many punters’ betting plans for the match.Understandably so. Only Liverpool’s even-more remarkable 9-0 win over Bournemouth back in August last year tops it.
For the record, Liverpool also recorded a 9-0 home win over Crystal Palace back in the old First Division. The record win in any match that Liverpool have produced was their 11-0 success in the 1974 European Cup Winners’ Cup against Stromsgodset.
A Way In To Liverpool Correct Scores
In general, however, the correct score market is an obviously risky one. But there are some approachable entry points into the action. One of them is thinking about the outcomes of games that look as if they are going to be low scoring affairs.Low-scoring games are generally those where the two teams are evenly matched. Games that just don't look in the stats that they are going to go above 2.5 goals. That’s the better type of game to focus on for the market.
Why? Because if you firmly think a match is going to go under 2.5 Goals then only six correct score options can crop up, a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw, or a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for one team. That narrows down the correct score market massively.
An even tighter expectancy at Under 1.5 Goals narrows it down further to four. So it’s not about looking for those uncommon score lines on a whim, as there’s no point. A 1-0 victory is a lot more common than a 3-2 result for example.
For the entirety of the 2021/22 season, the top three most frequent Premier League score lines were 1-1, 1-0 and 1-0 and 2-0.
In-Play The Correct Score?
If you are tracking Liverpool games looking for Correct Score opportunities, in-play is an option. No doubt once Liverpool had stretched out to a 4-0 lead at Anfield over United, some punters would have put down some bigger optimistic scoreline bets.That’s not a bad approach and waiting for in-play gives punters the chance to assess the flow of the game. Even waiting until half of the match has been played can pay off. The second half of matches generally produces more goals.
It also leans into situations. For this season, Liverpool’s potential of coming up with equalising goals in matches was fairly poor. Including that early March success over Manchester United, Liverpool had fallen behind 16 times in the season.
Their recovery to find an equalising goal happened in just nine of those occasions for a 56% rate. So had the shoe been on the other foot and Liverpool had been trailing 1-0 at half-time in that game against United, something entirely different may have played out.
Punters may have been hesitant to move much beyond the same correct score at the final whistle or maybe a 1-1 pick.
The Top Four Chop
The quote on Liverpool making a Top Four finish was chopped down to even money after the United match. After looking like a long shot for a fair portion of the season, the market has shifted and it’s now a reality.Also pushing Liverpool’s bid for Champions League football next season is the slipping and sliding of Tottenham and Newcastle. The bids of both of those in the race for a Top Four finish have become increasingly unstable.
Newcastle’s slumping form in 2023, including a 2-0 loss against the Reds, has opened the door for Liverpool. Tottenham’s season has slid into unpredictability, home wins over the likes of Man City and Chelsea were scratched out because of losses to Wolves and Leicester.
It’s Getting Better
Maybe Liverpool have got their second wind for the campaign. After such a long season, playing every possible game they could in the 2021/22 campaign across all competitions, the drop-off in performance levels of the first half of this campaign could be accounted for.At the turn of the year, they weren’t in the top four race at all. They had taken one point from their first four league matches of 2023 with just one goal scored in that sequence. But it’s gotten better and better.
It is unlikely to get any better than their Anfield result over Manchester United.
Written by Alan Spencer
