Liverpool’s story since the EPL establishment is rather tragic. Despite having numerous legendary squads and fantastic seasons, the team won the title only once. The massive underachieving in EPL hurts the Reds' fans the most. But each season, Liverpool fans worldwide make bets on their team winning the title. Followers from Merseyside bet mostly in next-door shops, while Asian supporters do it primarily online, while Aussies use their local bookies like
RocketPlayCasino.
It was the case this year, even despite the uncertainty around the team.
Pre-season uncertainty after Klopp’s departure
A fantastic 9-season long run under Jürgen Klopp came to an end in the summer of 2024. It was a marvelous period for Liverpool, during which the team won 8 trophies, made 3 UCL finals, and was basically the only competitor to invisible Citizens in EPL. The league title in 2020 was probably the pinnacle of Klopp’s career at Anfield. Especially given the 30-year title drought by the Reds and how close the team was to winning EPL the year before. Aside from that winning year, Klopp and Liverpool had at least three contending seasons, when City was just better by an inch.
Klopp announced his departure from Liverpool way before the end of the season. It was a smart move that gave the club more time to find him a successor. The decision to invite Arne Slot from Feyenoord surprised many, as the Dutchman was basically unknown in England. Add to it the departure of some good players and aging leaders, and you’ll get the perfect recipe for a disappointing season. That’s how many pundits and even Liverpool fans were thinking before the start of the year.
The development of Liverpool's odds on winning EPL 2025
Dark horse. It was the most generous description of Liverpool before the 2024/25 season started. There is a lack of fresh blood, a not-that-deep squad, and a new manager on top of that. Who would expect such a team to be the favorite? Right, almost no one. According to the general agreement, it was all about Man City and Arsenal, which were more complete and balanced teams.
Pre-season odds
The pre-season odds reflect perfectly how the public perceived Liverpool at the start of the EPL 2024/25. Here are the prices by the bookies before the first week of the season:
- Man City – 3/2
- Arsenal – 7/4
- Liverpool – 11/2
- Chelsea – 17/1
As you can see, Liverpool was far behind Manchester City and Arsenal. And no one questioned the odds, as Citizens and Gunners really looked like better teams on paper. Of course, Liverpool’s title hopes were not dismissed entirely, but the current trends were against the Reds. The team won just one EPL title in 35 years, just said goodbye to their legendary coach, and had two powerful opponents. It was also hard to ignore the fact that since Conte, no newcomer coach won the EPL on the first try.
Another argument against Liverpool was the recency bias. Many believed that if the team couldn’t win the title under Klopp in four years, it would be impossible to do so with an unknown Dutchman. The scenario of Liverpool following the path of Man United after Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement felt more realistic.
Odds development during the season
This season’s run by Liverpool in EPL is genuinely against all odds. The team is performing on a level of the best seasons under Klopp. And despite all the skepticism at the start of the season, Liverpool have gone from a dark horse to an overwhelming fav to win the title. Of course, the main reason for that is the results from both EPL and UCL. As of February, Liverpool looks like the best team in Europe, with good chances to collect numerous trophies.
So, here is how the odds of Liverpool winning EPL 2025 have been developing:
- 08.08: 11/2
- 01.09: 9/2
- 01.10: 17/5
- 01.11: 11/5
- 01.12: 8/11
- 01.01.2025: 2/9
- 01.02: 2/9
According to the bookies, Liverpool is also the favorite to win the UCL before the playoffs start. Moreover, some sportsbooks offer to bet on a treble or even quadruple by the Slot’s side. Given the pre-season circumstances, the Reds fans could not have imagined such a development in the current football year.
Liverpool has a really good chance to make this season historic. The final months of the season will tell.
Possible pitfalls in Liverpool's way of winning EPL
With having a good handicap before Arsenal, Liverpool have the luxury to lose some points here and there and still keep the distance. However, even two matches without a win can heat up the race. So, it’s very important not to get involved in bad streaks. Luckily, the calendar is relatively loyal to Liverpool in terms of missing hard back-to-backs in EPL.
Another vital moment is injuries. Aside from Jota’s problems, Liverpool have been fortunate to avoid long layoffs from their leaders. But it’s almost inevitable that the key players will eventually get injured. The question is whether Liverpool will be able to manage that, given the limited talent on the bench.
Written by Alan Spencer